The last week of January is synonymous with many things: the Super Bowl, the Australian Open, Chinese New Year, the State of the Union…and for the world’s elite: Davos.

The World Economic Forum, as it properly known, happens every winter in the remote Swiss city as a way for foreign leaders and world business leaders to exchange ideas through dialogue. Of course, as the event’s profile has risen so has the sensationalistic nature surrounding it…and thus the “Economist” went so far recently to describe the Forum as a “love-in”. Celebrities push initiatives and talk about the world’s problems, yet totally isolated from them ensconced in the Swiss countryside.

Fever pitch surrounding Davos previously peaked in 2004, when then Vice President Dick Cheney made a highly publicized visit. It’s not that he said anything revolutionary…it’s that people naturally wondered just what secret powers the Forum and its members must exert if the Vice President would come out of the shadows and actually be seen in public there. (So far there’s no evidence that he came to meet the Pentavirate consisting of the Queen, the Vatican, the Gettys, the Rothschilds, and Colonel Sanders.)

This year, I’ve been watching far more coverage of the Australian Open than the World Economic Forum…but I did find something rather interesting in the British paper “The Telegraph” today:

“US-China currency war, eclipses Davos and threatens the world”

The gist is this…the Chinese are really hot under the collar about comments made by our new Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner. He has accused Beijing of currency manipulation. (That wasn’t news to me…it’s that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was so steamed he could barely observe the Eastern custom of “saving face” and showing no emotion.)

As Ambrose Pritchard-Evans correctly notes, it’s true the Chinese artificially kept their currency low to ensure their exports were cheap. But what he doesn’t say is that the Bush Administration had a very good reason for playing along: Iraq. The US needed money to finance the War on Terror and China put up the cash…not by offering their own currency…but by exporting so much crap to the US that they could take US Treasury bills and bonds on to an extent never before seen on earth. That was music to Washington’s ears because it allowed them to rev up the war machine without raises taxes.

The only catch is that the US needed to instigate people to buy all this “stuff”. And that’s was the genesis of the the low interest rates and the housing bubble policies of the early 00’s. That’s also where the currency peg (a fixed dollar-Chinese currency exchange rate) came in. Otherwise, rising American consumer demand would have caused the price of Chinese exports to rise without it. Thus, even as the housing bubble caused inflation in home prices, food, energy, and plenty of other items produced domestically…many people felt richer because what they bought in Chinese exports kept being cheap.

Yes, China was involved in currency manipulation…but so were we….

What concerns the British especially is the thought of a trade war. But Pritchard-Evans is right too that President Obama is spending so heavily that he can’t ignore the Chinese. Indeed, the US taxpayer isn’t funding the bailout of the upcoming economic stimulus, the taxpayer is actually borrowing the money from the Chinese with the promise to reimburse them later. The article speculates that some of Geithner’s rhetoric is in line with Hillary Clinton’s stance on China during the campaign.

What caught my eye, though, was the revelation that Jiabao has a plan to reduce China’s exports anyway and focus more on domestic production. That would lessen their need for US Treasuries and in turn, hammer the US dollar.

Still we’re not there yet. For all we know, a trade war with China is part of a bigger foreign policy strategy under Obama. Still, if you think what we have seen economically is bad, you don’t really want to think of what nosedive in the US dollar will do….

Jaded by all the hedonistic and libertine pleasures that Cougar Country affords, I decided that this past weekend would be the perfect opportunity for a change of pace. With no more medication to take, not a lot of extra money, or excess energy to hike the opportunity was ripe for a road trip of sorts….right up to the summit of Montana del Sur. It happens to be the nation’s largest municipal park…but it’s most a desert preserve with some recreational areas added later by Pueblo Grande. Oh, and a forest of radio and TV towers at the peak. But unlike Alta Sonora’s other iconic mountains, the Montana has two major differences: a) it’s shaped like a ridge allowing views unobstructed by those broadcast towers and b) there’s a road all the way to the top.

Now granted, it’s a narrow, winding affair probably more appropriate for burros than my car. But hey, who’s complaining when the mountain offers not one but several amazing vistas of the land below.

However, given the less than soothing drive up, I narrowed down my selection of stops to two: the main lookouts facing north and south respectively. As you might imagine, if people in the area call it Montana del Sur, then it stands to reason you would start your ascent on the north slope (which you do). You follow the road up and up and up and up until a few impromptu vistas. Then the first major fork leads to the best of the northern lookouts, Dobbins. But given that I didn’t want to double back, I forged ahead to the very top, and then came back to Dobbins on my way down.

At the very top you don’t see very much, other than Duane’s neighborhood in the Silicon Desert. (He happens to live in the only subdivision that was built even farther south than the mountain itself.) You see, that neighborhood borders the boundaries of one of Alta Sonora’s numerous Indian reservations. Due south there’s almost nothing until you reach the border.

Of course, there is more sprawl, but if happens to be to the east and hard to see at the summit. Proudly visible meanwhile are lots of couples canoodling in the chilly air with the wind blowing in your face. (I do not know how this is romantic but in any case…)

Heading back down, you reach Dobbins. Here you look north into the heart of the city. The elevation is a little over 2000 feet limiting your sight horizon from the breathtaking to the merely impressive. (Most of the metro area is around 1000 feet in elevation.) And unlike other world famous vistas, there’s no striking topography or famous buildings to gaze upon. Just more mountains and subdivisions stretching as far as the eye can see.

You’ll share this view with lots of other people of course, equally unable to resist. But despite this, it still feels surprisingly distant. I left with the impression that it is always lonely at the top. Not because one is truly alone there, but because of the clarity that separation from humanity it provides.

Lately, I’ve been taking so many antibiotics you’d think I was a dairy cow. It wasn’t intentional…I was set up to a do a clinic trial with a specialist when my primary care doctor prescribed me another type for a sinus infection. As you can imagine, I wasn’t thrilled about it…but there was only a couple days of overlap. And as you’ll see…I had good reason to follow the doctor’s orders.

Back in December, I saw a gastroenterologist because other physicians had suggested I might be a candidate for irritable bowel syndrome or IBS. Most doctors proclaim that IBS is an unknown malady and that it’s only diagnosed by a test of negation. But the specialist informed me that research was beginning to suggest that in fact IBS may be cause by an irregular reproduction of bacteria in the gut. That normal healthy bacteria that ensure your normal bowel movements can be crowded out by mutants. This is essentially what happens when you go overseas and eat in countries with different sanitary standards.

A recent study suggested that many IBS sufferers were cured simply by taking sophisticated, synthetic antibiotics to kill the mutant bacteria and allow the normal bacteria to grow back. I was offered by the physician to do a clinical trial and see what happened. Now I realize that some people might not have wasted their time but I had reason to. One, my IBS eats away at my productivity at work and forces me often to walk around with Imodium in my pocket to handle any sort of discomfort. Two, my IBS first manifested itself while at USC. One thing that is poorly understood is how ubiquitous international students are at USC and how many of them are from Asia. Third, I have good health insurance meaning that I only paid about $40 for the trial.

There was just one catch…the medicine had to be taken three times a day in pill form. I’ve never been able to swallow pills whole for reasons which I don’t understand myself. My sister Liz and brother also claim the same disability. In any case, the pills were crushable, allowing me to mash them up in applesauce. However, the drug didn’t taste bad at all…allowing me to slurp down the applesauce with ease.

Initially the response my body had was very positive. It appeared I had been cured. But then I noticed that I was sick with some sort of cough. I went to see my primary care doctor…who naturally wishes I saw him far less than I do…and he decided to prescribe not a new, synthetic antibiotic but the granddaddy of them all, penicillin. This is because he tends to offer his patients azithromycin but that is only available in pill form. He mistakenly thought the liquid penicillin would be flavored and not taste terrible. But instead not only did it taste like ass…but it also had to be refrigerated and taken four times a day in a tiny dosage (1 teaspoon). [Keep in mind, the Office has a refrigerator.]

But there was another catch: antibiotics usually cause diarrhea or stomach upset as a side effect. This is because there are these bacteria in your gut…and antibiotics tend to kill them…funny thing. Just to confuse you further, taking Imodium with penicillin is fine but it stop the synthetic drug, Xifaxan from being absorbed. So for the overlapping days I had to sit uncomfortably for a little while. (I actually called the specialist a few times and he never called me back.)

Now you might be wondering how I managed to take them both at once. And the truth is, I had to stagger my dosages to avoid taking them both at the same time. But the Xifaxan doesn’t actually leave your intestines, deliberately allowing you to take another antibiotic for other infections.

I go back to the gastroenterologist on Monday and he’ll probably tell me to wait a little longer to evaluate things post-penicillin. I did have to use Imodium once this month…but I think it had to do with something I ate. Still, something is different, even if it turns out not to be a panacea. To quote Alex from A Clockwork Orange, “I was cured all right.”

Good thing, too.  Things are about to get interesting around here.

Usually I have more than enough material to fill the endless void that is cyberspace talking about this or that. But this weekend, on the other hand, proved to be such a vortex that I kept forgetting today was Monday.

It all began innocently enough. Rita was thinking her kids and I should take an impulse vacation because of the recent spate of warm weather. That was all fine and good, but most of Alta Sonora wasn’t enjoying such warm weather I had to explain. And because it was a 3 day weekend, the places that were desirable had sky-high room rates. So the ultimate result was trip to the local mini-golf course abbreviated by what I like to call a case of the “Filberto’s”.

Chey meanwhile had managed to the impossible. The Sonoran Songbirds, our hapless hometown team had found themselves in the NFL conference championship and now, after thinking he wouldn’t, found tickets at below face value. He promptly paid for the pair and then after some cajoling by Rita took their son along instead of sell the other ticket.

She however, wasn’t doing so well. After making us all hamburgers for lunch (that were quite good) she felt a sharp pain in her tooth. The problem was, it happened from eating the burger, which was nice and soft. Thus, after the pain didn’t abate shortly I convinced her to go to the nearby Emergency Room which had a post wait time of 9 minutes. (Need more evidence the economy is bad…people aren’t even having as many emergencies!)

While I’ve had plenty of eventful visits to emergency rooms, the playoff game was on TV so the ensuing hour passed effortless and Rita found out that ERs don’t have dentists. (I found out rather, that apparently gross anatomy doesn’t include a lecture on teeth.) The result was that Rita found herself taking some hydrocodone and decided to see if her dentist was around today.

By luck he was, but the irony was that even he wasn’t particularly sure of the pathology and told her to return for another exam in a few days. I kept reminding her that at least we hadn’t gone out of town to somewhere remote when this happened. And such, she agreed.

But you wonder is the a moral to the story…some sort of greater truth to all this? Yes, indeed. During the whole ordeal I managed to forget about work for about 36 hours…which is pretty good for me.

At first I thought I’d be posting this week about my newfound affinity for antibiotics or the pitfalls of relying on Google Maps to locate where you want to go to lunch. But then it dawned on me that this is perhaps the last possible moment to make predictions on the upcoming Obama Administration. Oh sure, you know what I think already to some degree:…the growing influence of the ethanol lobby, the return of many Clintonistas, and the continued economic malaise.

But that’s not the only thing that Obama’s term portends, and more importantly, those things may not be what the public attaches to him much. It’s a sad tragedy that people care more about what book the guy reads than what his policy proposals are…but if the last few years have taught us anything…it’s the cult of personality. Nevertheless, the following represent just a few thoughts about what the next four years have in store:

NBA All Star Jam at the White House: As soon as I heard about Obama’s “big plans” for the White House gym I thought it fait accompli that it would be an opportunity for certain people, i.e. retired and current basketball players to “stop by”. Sure, we can dream of the 2012 race being decided by a game of HORSE with Sarah “the Barracuda” Palin, but we’ll probably have to settle for the White House Gym hosting all manner of NBA stars showing up to spend a little face time and shooting hoops with Barack. Now I realize, some people think this sounds a tad racist. But for the record, Reggie Miller has already talked about doing just this. Moreover, Dick Cheney went hunting more than once as Vice President and probably never used the activity to his advantage in any way (said facetiously).

Another Black Family on TV: Be it the Jeffersons, the Huxtables, Steve Urkel and the Winslows, or Will Smith and the Bankses, I don’t know where all the black families have gone on TV, but it certainty isn’t to cable that’s for sure. Something tells me that even though Dennis Haysbert was the President on “24” Hollywood will capitalize on the Obamas to bring us more African-Americans in prime time. (Cue Shonda Rhimes looking pissed for her placement of blacks on “Grey’s Anatomy.) Still, the real question is going to be if Hollywood’s depiction of African-Americans grows beyond the successful family on the East or West Coast. What would be amazing is a series set in the South, replete with endemic poverty and hope. Another thought would be a program focused around a black family displaced by Hurricane Katrina living somewhere else. Or better still, a Soprano’s style melodrama wrapped around black radicals. But why do I get the feeling Taye Diggs on “Private Practice” is a close as it’s going to get?

Michelle Obama versus Oprah Winfrey: I don’t want to pretend I know much about the “feud” that is espoused between the two. Hell, it’s not like a defiant black woman has ever been cast as a villain (cough, Star Jones or Omarosa, cough). But if I had to guess, Michelle Obama probably was the reason that her family went to church with Reverend Wright. Oprah used to be a parishioner there too but no longer. So along comes Barack as the nation’s first viable black Presidential candidate and you do the math. Namely, the money via ratings that Michelle Obama’s appearance would generate on Oprah’s show and the type of animosity that must exist to overrule that. I’m sure Elizabeth Hasselbeck has already been warned that when a “proud” Mrs. Obama comes back on “The View”, the co-host can’t treat her like Rosie O’Donnell.

The Obama Book Club: Speaking of Oprah, the nations retailers would love for Obama to sell their products for them.  Much as Barack supports and economic stimulus plan, that’s not it. He is, however, eager to reverse the atmosphere of anti-intellectualism that hung in the moist Washington air during the Bush years. That could be, by extension, good news for publishers and other high-brow types.  Still, I don’t expect him to branch out to lunch boxes or hair kits like the Olsen Twins.

Sex Scandals: Bill Clinton will be caught with his pants down. Again. Need I say more?  Democratic administrations are fertile ground for promiscuity. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. Better for our politicians to make love in the cloak room than make war in the Middle East…oops I mean…nevermind.

A New Day in Iran: Nixon went to China, and now Obama goes to Tehran. Just as Tricky Dick astutely showed up in Beijing as the country bordered on starvation…expect Obama to arrive just in time to wrest concessions out of the Ayatollah. After funding the insurgency in Iraq for years, along with the Palestinian Intifada, Iran now finds itself with runaway inflation from the Ahmadinejad Administration and plummeting oil prices. However, with Russia attempting to use natural gas as a geopolitical weapon, the US has much to gain by opening up Iran because of its and its neighbor Turkmenistan’s vast methane reserves.

DNC 2012- New Orleans: Both parties flirted with the idea of holding their national conventions in New Orleans in 2008. The catch? It would have revealed the terribly slow pace of rebirth in the Crescent City. Obama isn’t guaranteed to change that, but no city is as poised for him to cement the message of rebirth he will desperately want in 2012.  Duplicating the electricity of his campaign in 2008 will be no easy feat…but at least…this gives him a shot.

One of the greatest things about living within the boundaries of the Sonoran Empire is….the great outdoors. Now, I grew up in Southern California where it’s often possible to play outside year-round, and indulge in a myriad of hobbies and activities. But the urban curse of Los Angeles is this: too often it’s recreation at the park or the beach and not much else. And for those people who like to jog, or surf, or shoot hoops the opportunities are endless. But if you actually like nature and being in it…Southern California is Paradise Lost, a place absent, as my former roommate Sam used to say, of unpaved surfaces.

Now don’t get me wrong. Californians (at least those living on the coast) are nothing if not environmentally conscious. But they are also prisoners of the very sprawl which has all but decimated their surroundings. Vast coastal wetlands have been drained, critical wildlife habitats bulldozed, and hideous toxins cloaking the air in a noxious smog.

Alta Sonora is hardly immune from such concerns, of course.  Yet because there is no coastline, no natural barriers to growth…the wilderness, the untamed desert still beckons for exploration. And that’s the beauty of it. Every weekend presents the opportunity for a new adventures and discoveries.

The caveat is that the desert is a dangerous place, and it’s not good to hike alone. But for a long time, I longed to find someone who was content with more scenery and less daunting treks. Hydration is a major concern, even on the most gentle of strolls. Most experienced hikers and groups live for the challenge, meanwhile, and not eager to tackle something tame week after week.

That whole quest ended when, talking to Rita, I floated the idea of taking a hike. Not only was she receptive to the idea, but she was open to doing it regularly, as a way to exercise. Since then, we've managed to hit the trail at least once a month. Last weekend, we found ourselves wandering alone in the literal wilderness, with the only the hope we’d finish the trail before dark. The suspense proved a little undeserved, as bewitching as it was to watch the shadows engulf our surroundings.

Of course, I found it all a little disappointing. I had convinced myself we’d traverse a forest of Saguaros, with striking geography and wildlife. Instead, it was a pristine, if plain loop bereft of any animals. (That’s not necessarily a bad thing if rattlesnakes are active.) The county park in which it sits was the victim of a major fire a decade ago, and it has yet to fully recover. Yet it is on hikes like these that I realize:

The desert is not Paradise, but at times, you can see it from there.

It took my by surprise this week how pervasive unemployment has become. Not because it’s unexpected…I knew layoffs were coming…but because how quickly things have deteriorated.

I have friends who are unemployed, some recently and others not. And I know plenty of people who are still working. Some are worried about their livelihoods and some are not. I have felt ambivalent, largely because there’s obvious pressure on the state budget and personnel costs here. But on the other hand, I don’t exactly sell sub-prime mortgages for a living.

Still, you might hear someone say that “unemployment is a lagging indicator”. That might give you the impression that since it lags other indicators…it’s not a useful tool. That’s not true however, the unemployment rate is valuable because it can be compared against payroll surveys of companies. The Department of Labor you see, surveys individuals as to whether they are looking for work or not. Other data, meanwhile, measures whether employers are actually hiring.

The question no one seems to ask though, is why unemployment has accelerated so fast. The answer is actually quite telling but predictability at odds with recent government policy: the national savings rate.

Certainly you recall in 2005 when the national savings rate went negative for the first time. What’s that you say, you didn’t? You may not be alone. While it was publicized, and heavily commented on American’s individually saving less and borrowing more, few applied the same logic to business. But therein lies the story: a company with little savings is especially sensitive to volatile economic conditions. More alarming, and not proven however, is the thought that even companies that were not this way before have become so because of the influence of Wall Street and the need to stay “competitive” with other firms that were more highly leveraged.

Now, it might seem as if all is lost. But younger worker can take some solace in the fact that the workforce is actually scheduled to shrink. As the aged Baby Boom generation disappears, natural attrition will occur forcing employers to become more productive, and failing that, hire someone else. But given that unemployment benefits now only last for 39 weeks, not 39 years…that probably won’t be enough in the short term.

In the past, with higher savings level, this would be all sound less dire. But now as you can imagine, with many people living paycheck to paycheck these days, the thought of a nation full of desperate, starving people is hardly reassuring.

Growing up in Southern California exposes you to many things at a tender age, but not pro football. The Rams and Raiders both left in the strange and bizarre aftermath of the Northridge earthquake chasing stadium deals in St. Louis and Oakland. Both teams had painted themselves into a corner: the Raiders couldn’t fill the Coliseum’s capacity or improve its neighborhood’s sullied image. To boot, it’s fan base hardly cultivated seemed to cultivate a “family atmosphere”. The Rams, on the other hand, attempted to solve this problem by moving to Anaheim. Nevertheless this isolated the franchise from the region’s center of population, all while they were besieged by mediocrity. And so, when both stadia required seismic retrofitting after 1994 it was easier to leave than stay.

When I finally moved to Alta Sonora last year, pro football was hardly a consideration. The local team hadn’t been to the playoffs in ten years. It’s notoriously cheap owners had been reluctant to make the squad competitive…allowing them to languish in obscurity. But all that changed this year when their division imploded. The result was a divisional crown, and a guaranteed home football game.

Chey had told me at Christmas that the playoff tickets were overpriced and that he wasn’t going to try to find any on the Internet. Instead, he was happy to watch the regular season finale at seats worth four times  what he paid for him. But sure enough, come New Year’s Eve Chey revealed that he had found playoff tickets for cheap.

While one might worry just how this was possible…we soon found out it was merely because some season ticket holder decided not to go. There were a total of six seats for sale, and Chey used one for himself, two for his kids, and two for a coworker and his girlfriend. That left one free. Ever eager to help watching the kids, Chey called me.

Rita, however, had been equally motivated to have me visit her barber to get a new haircut and the stylist didn’t arrive into the salon until 11am that day. Of course I should add this is a children’s hair salon…but Rita swore by the stylist’s artistry. That delayed Chey’s departure time for the stadium. We ended up leaving around 12:30pm for a 2:30pm kickoff.

Things went smoothly…season ticket holders get parking passes so we pulled right into the parking lot and made our way to a tailgate with another one of Chey’s coworkers. From there, we ate some buffalo wings while I tossed a mini-football to Justin several times. Okay…a whole bunch of times.

We ended up missing the kickoff (not like that matters in the NFL) and coming face to face with the vaunted security system. Every stadium and sport is a little different, but the NFL likes to do pat-downs. In any case, from there we made our way to our seats, learning that the Sonoran Songbirds had broken the game open with a touchdown. We ambled up a slightly steep grade and sat down. Given my prior experience with Chey, I was prepared for the worst, most vertigo-inducing views possible. But this proved to be manageable as I struggled with a sore throat.

As the game went on however, we soon were subject to a new affliction. Directly behind us were some loud, and likely inebriated fans shouting all manner of obscenity. More confusing is that these guys (and this one girl) were apparently barely legal yet still enjoying adult beverages. In any case, their commentary soon went from merely profane and prolix to absurdity. They began to taunt one of the Songbird’s star receivers for perceived poor play…alleging that he “liked black cock”. I should point out that on the very same drive…the same player scored a touchdown. Nevertheless, the other team took the lead before halftime apparently fueling more vitriol from these guys.

The break in action also meant that I needed to visit the bathroom…after consuming a bottle of water during the first half. I descended the stairs only to see a line out the door for the bathroom. Unsatisfied, I walked to the next restroom, which still had a line though it was much shorter. I had to wait so long I almost took a picture of line snaking out the door…and the lack of one at the women’s next door. But instead the whole ordeal took so long that I missed another score to start the second half.

I then wandered around the stadium for a little bit, but found it pretty unremarkable from a fan’s perspective despite being new and state-of-the-art.

Returning to my seat the rest of the game was a bit anticlimactic with the Songbirds holding onto the lead to win. But that didn’t stop our neighbors from weighing in on all sort of opinions. They seemed to get louder as the minutes waned, earning the ire of more and people around us…but before long the game was over and our friends disappeared. Chey the kids and I made our exit and reunited with his friend at the tailgate to get some items out his car. Then it was back to the parking lot and after a pleasant little traffic jam, home.

I have to admit that I was a little surprised by my experience. Given how corporate and unaffordable spectator sports have become, I didn’t anticipate the rowdy and masculine atmosphere, not that I minded. As an Eagle Scout who went to an all-male Catholic high school, I’m used to heavy doses of testosterone. But the whole thing still sort of defies description.

Granted, I was never part of a fraternity in college so I’m reluctant to make such a comparison. But having been to many a party in my day, I’d say the whole experience was sort of like Spring Break at South Padre Island….without any chicks.  I could only wonder if other cities were different, or if the NFL really is NASCAR-on-grass.

In any case, it’s just proof that not all of life experiences can be confined to world’s most cosmopolitan and diverse places. That even for a native Californian, Alta Sonora continues to provide new and exciting discoveries.