I've managed to have more than one good scare this week....from waking up in the middle night and thinking I'm seeing a ghost and realizing it was an illusion to getting a mystery phone call that turned out a customer satisfaction survey. But nothing compared to the horror of seeing Nouriel Roubini testifying to Congress today.

Yes, I know, you have no idea who he is. In economic circles, his nickname is "Dr. Doom". He got this moniker because during the housing boom he clung like a pariah to the notion that a severe correction was coming. Naturally, his role as Cassandra has earned lots of attention now, but he isn't done with his crystal ball. Roubini's current prediction is that Washington could close the stock market for "a week or two" if things continue to deteriorate.

[He actually posts a quite informative newsletter at www.rgemonitor.com. I actually have never his work firsthand, because I was under the impression to read his blog you had to pay for a subscription. It turns out that's partially true...full site access requires forking over an untold sum. But you can sign up for his Economonitor newsletter, just go here: https://www.rgemonitor.com/component/option,com_signup/signup_type,free ]

The timing of all this could not have been better: Wednesday was the 79th anniversary of the Great Crash of 1929....

This week is also a turning point of sorts at work. My analysis is finished and it's time to consult with my superiors about my recommendations in the upcoming weeks. It's an odd feeling only because this time last year I was so unfamiliar with the process I didn't know what to expect. Now...there are fewer surprises and I feel far more comfortable.

That's allowed me to do some whistling past the graveyard of my own... at least for now.

Everyone had plans last weekend, 'cept me. So I decided to seize the opportunity and do something few expected: I did some maintenance work. I took my car into the dealership for a regular service, and then proceeded to clean up my little abode. I had let lots of bills and other paperwork accumulate, but that wasn't the real impetuous behind the idea. No, it's that a friend of mine is coming to visit in two weeks and I wanted to have the place clean for him. But I'm also sort of happy for myself, that even though the place looks more barren...that I was able to psychological conquer my fear.

I am not afraid of being clean.

Instead, I have an odd problem that I suppose arose from my childhood. After my mother died, I began to be a bit of an itinerant...moving from one place to another and never really feeling all that grounded. As a result, I didn't like to acquire stuff because I wasn't sure I could take it with me.

By contrast, I began to cling to things, records, even electricity bills of what was given to me...what I had no choice to accept. I found myself collecting birthday cards that people had given me for years. I knew it had to stop, but I felt embroiled in a trap of sorts...that I didn't feel safe. I was throwing away documents, things which I might need.

This also extended to my eating habits. I would eat everything on my plate if I could. If it turned out to be too much...I'd always put the rest in my fridge, never to eat it again, but feeling "safe" that I had conserved it.

So what allowed me to let go this time? Why didn't I find myself paralyzed as before?

I honestly don't know. I suppose it could be that for once, I had this vague feeling of self-confidence about it. But then again, I've been less and less inclined to worry about my health too recently. Of course, good luck tends to make me paranoid...paranoid that my run is about to be up and to expect more rain.

At least I guess, rain also has the ability to clean.

If you follow football, you know that no matter how long the season is, there are only a handful of times you get to watch your team each year. And that usually means that the season usually comes down to one game, potentially smothered in tradition and pageantry by playing a rival.

But that doesn't always happen. Sometimes it's a contest that you were least expecting, one that you were barely paying attention to until....

As luck would have it, this year both my alma matres, UCLA and USC, manage to have their bellwether games Saturday. We will pretty much know where they are headed for the rest of the year. I say this because college football is that oddest of sports where the primary objective is not to win the championship. What's that you say....haven't I heard of the BCS?

Indeed I have, but have you heard of the Rose Bowl? You realize of course that while plenty of universities chase the best coaches with serious money, most have little change in being selected for the national championship. Perhaps the polls hate them, or maybe their strength of schedule sucks...who knows...but almost every team with a winning record goes to a bowl. And not just a game that is playing away from home....oh no it's a game against some foreign opponent you never play in your conference in some environment scripted by the local convention and visitor's bureau excited to have ESPN come in, televise the game, and remind the target demo that they are the shrimp capital of the world.

By the way, I like shrimp.

USC, which everyone figured would cruise to the title, instead lost at Oregon State. UCLA, after getting pounded by BYU, Arizona, and Fresno State beat Stanford in last-second comeback. Now, both schools find the door ajar and needing decisive wins this weekend to save their seasons....

UCLA at California 12:30pm ABC: The road to a bowl game for UCLA firmly goes past the Bay. The Bruins (and Bears) really need this game in a "logjammed" PAC-10 to ensure a winning record. I actually witnessed in person the last time "the Southern Extension" beat the College of California at Memorial Stadium, brainpower and all. This time, the Bruins don't have Cade McNown, a veteran offensive line, DeShaun Foster or even Ed Kezirian.

Rick Neuheisel, Norm Chow, and DeWayne Walker are no slouches however, and you figure they know this is probably the last chance for a "statement game" this year. Neuheisel has been trying hard to remind his players about the tradition of playing their sister school. Of course, both schools have the same fight song (different words)and same colors (different hues), which makes it a particularly confusing event for the spectator.

Former Bear savior Jeff Tedford has grown impatient with his franchise quarterback in Nate Longshore. This all but ensures the Cal offense to feature their star running back Jahvid Best even more, after leaving the last game with a minor injury. That's not exactly what UCLA wanted to hear, as they have surrendered 182 rushing yards per game this season. That puts a lot of pressure on the offense to score early and often to take the Bear running game out of it.

The supposedly stout Cal defense buckled in the second half of their game last week in Arizona, with the help of a powerful one two punch of passing and running. While senior tailback Kahlil Bell is healthy and several young receivers emerging, starting left tackle managed to injure himself at practice this week. Look for that to reinforce Norm Chow's decision to utilize quarterback Kevin Craft more on rollouts and throws from outside the pocket.

The issue for the Bears is that Javhid Best may not be 100%. If so, using him to break the game open early might backfire. The only other option is have Longshore take more passes early, given that his penchant for interceptions seems to increase as the game goes on. That uncertainty is enough for any motivated team to crawl through, and ought to reveal which of these teams is bowl-bound and which isn't.

USC at Arizona 7:15pm FSN: I had this game circled on my calendar all year, and not just because I was thinking of buying a ticket. Arizona's heretofore ferocious defenses under Mike Stoops had caused problems for earlier vintage Trojan squads. USC always managed to eke out a victory and keep their national championship dreams alive. This time, the Men of Troy already have lost one game, and roll into Arizona Stadium on homecoming night with a crowd that ought to be rocking.

USC didn't exactly dominate in similar circumstances at Oregon State. The Beavers turned their freshman phenom running back Jacquizz Rodgers loose as the faithful watched on. Pete Carroll was able to adjust to this ground assault in the second half, but not before watching Reggie Bush's heir apparent, Joe McKnight commit more than one turnover. Add the fact that the Wildcats also have a stand out tight end to challenge the usually solid Trojan linebackers and you get the idea.

The Arizona defense is missing blue-chip NFL prospects like Antoine Cason, but is as strong as ever, at least on paper. The Trojans will use the strategy they have all year: score at will. That may go over like a lead balloon, but it will be fun to watch nonetheless. USC has no shortage of weapons, but does have a lack of depth at quarterback. While Mark Sanchez is doing well, his understudies have only a few snaps between them. That means the offensive line has to keep Mark upright to keep USC in the game.

Only the winner will get serious consideration for the Rose Bowl. There are simply too many other teams in the conference with one loss to give the vanquished much hope.

I purposely tried to relax this weekend...as work approaches its annual crescendo. But I did catch a movie....on video.

Yes, I passed up the chance to see "Made of Honor", and "Religulous" and even Sarah Palin on SNL to see..."King Corn".

It had been on my radar since June, when C-SPAN selected its director Aaron Wolff, to appear on "Q and A". The film is a documentary about two young college graduates who both happen to have ancestors in a small Iowa burgh. Deep in the cornbelt, the friends decide to rent an acre of land from a local farmer to grow corn.

The movie lures you into thinking its a dry, quirky look into modern agriculture. That is, until their odyssey takes a turn to the local Farm Services Agency office. Then you realize this is an expose...straight to the heart of the agricultural-industry complex. The irony though, is that Wolff admitted to C-SPAN's paterfamilias Brian Lamb that he did have an agenda...to reform agricultural subsidies but not to eliminate them.

Ironically however, the picture concentrates almost exclusively on the "Super Size Me" effect of cheap corn on the food supply, not the "32% that goes to make ethanol". That's significant because the biggest agribusiness firms, like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) make most of their money from the fuel because of federal tax credits, even though it's hardly their largest operation. Federal law requiring ethanol as an additive in gasoline didn't hurt either.

But don't forget, one of corn-based ethanol's biggest backers is none other than Barack Obama. And one of it's biggest foes is John McCain. So you might be tempted to ask...is a vote for Obama a vote for diabetes? How will we ever be able to rein in corn production if our fuel supply depends on it? That's precisely the issue you see.

Corn is not the most advantageous crop to make ethanol from, that would be good old sugar cane. But as you might have noticed, American production of sugar has declined because of cheaper imports. The Brazilians, in fact are willing to share not just their cheap cane-based ethanol with us but also their Flex Fuel technology to allow cars to run on any concentration of gas and ethanol. Of course, that would kill any hope of energy independence. So what's a nation to do?

Spend billions unlocking "cellulosic ethanol" which would process any number of native American crops into pure alcohol. The only problem...it's still wishful thinking. But that won't stop the Obama Administration from breaking the bank to get us there, given his desire to withdraw from Iraq and into a more defensive position in the oil-rich Middle East. Indeed, Obama's ability to be against Iraq may be more a product of ADM's donation coffers than ideological purity.

But now I'm left to wonder if regardless of this typically American boondoggle over ethanol the need for cheap corn is going to make our dietary problems even worse. I say this because I'm really not keen on becoming a diabetic and eating a lot of processed food for the rest of my life. Much as I eat take-out these days...I'm really quite eager to get back to my roots and enjoy some pure eats.

How serious am I about this? I've actually been waiting for the local community college to offer their Japanese cooking class again. They offered it last in February and since then my pancreas and I have been waiting ever since. It's no secret that diet is a big factor as to why the Japanese have the longest life expectancy in the world. Of course, other reasons include a temperate climate, a highly accessible transit system, and incredibly cramped living that often requires people to live much of their lives outside their homes and on the go.

But hey, I'd settle for less corn syrup in my diet. And if you believe the guys in "King Corn" all it takes is reform of the subsidy system to stop encouraging planting "fence row to fence row". Yeah that's shouldn't be too difficult at all, given that the Presidential race frontrunner is from a farm state...and the US Senate preserves the power of small, rural states against populous, urban ones. Total walk in the park I say. You never know, they might even welcome us as liberators....

I realize it's been more than a week since I posted last....rest assured it has nothing to do with work or the economy's dire straits. No, I've just become a popular date is all.

This weekend, I went with Rita to Alta Sonora's frontier. We were there because of her kids...more specifically her parents who had been hosting her kids for their fall break. They didn't want to drive all the way here from their home in San Diego, so a rendezvous was scheduled in the Rome of the Southwest. Rita or Chey had done this many times before, but they had never spent the night. My research led me to believe that we would have a good time, and we did...more or less.

The weather was unseasonably cool, which we thought worked in our favor. But it turned out that because the city hosts so many snowbirds the town largely felt deserted.

Why you ask, did I suggest this dusty crossroads at the edge of the world? Because few places more neatly reveal our nation's history.

Before Europeans set foot in North America, the Colorado River ran wild and free. It spilled its contents over floodplains sometimes miles long, fluctuating with rain fall. After the Mexican Cession of 1848, Americans began to settle on the Colorado because it provided access to the Gulf of California by boat. The California Gold Rush increased the numbers of westward bound travelers, and the US Army built a fortress on the river's western shore in California, opposite the confluence of the Gila and Colorado rivers. Then in 1853, the US gained ownership of the land south of the Gila River through the Gadsden Purchase.

The fort's location wasn't an accident...it was next to a bluff which helped channel formed the only natural ford on the lower Colorado. During the Civil War, the Army built a Quartermaster Depot and before long, a permanent settlement emerged. Nourished by the river, these settlers began to grow crops like oranges and dates which reveled in the unrelenting sun and frost-free air. The burgeoning town was large enough to have its own delegate to the Territorial Legislature. And in 1876, the influence paid off...the town received $25,000 for the construction of the Territory's first prison, to be chiseled out of the eastern bluff opposite the old fort. The very next year, the Southern Pacific Railroad arrived, building the first permanent  folding bridge that opened to allow steamer traffic to pass north and south.

In 1902 though, the US Congress passed the Reclamation Act, with the purpose of harassing the American West's waterways to irrigate otherwise barren and uninhabitable lands including but not limited to coastal California. Along the Colorado, the Laguna Dam was built, with the idea that it would enhance agriculture in the region. But it also ended the potential for some of the most unpredictable and dangerous floods, thus allowing the town to grow, but also reducing the Colorado to a mere stream below it.

The lower water levels brought an end to the steamboat traffic and ushered in permanent bridges both for rail and for cars. It was the latter that connected the country for the first time via highway as the "Ocean to Ocean Bridge." It wasn't long before the Peach family opened the first motor hotel on the town's main north-south drag a few blocks south of the river. In 1946 it became one of the first to join the Best Western network. Not long after, the military returned...this time to take advantage of the area's clear skies to operate an air base.

Today you can visit the Quartermaster Depot and the Prison, both part of the state park system. You can also stay at the Best Western, with it's retro motif. And you can even drive north and see what the river used to look like before the dams were built. The US Congress eager to preserve the area, has designated it a federal Heritage zone with the hopes of rehabilitating the wetlands, invigorating the historic core. And you can even find some excellent restaurants.

For what it's worth though, I couldn't resist injecting a little bit of current affairs into the vacation. After Chey picked up the kids on Sunday (we had Columbus Day off, they didn't) I convinced Rita to drive south....to the border. It was here that the Department of Homeland Security elected to build the prototype wall which is now being imitated from California to Texas. It's a tripartite construction...with the old US-Mexico fence separated from a new, much more imposing one by a gangway monitored by Border Patrol trucks. Behind that there is another chain link fence securing the alleyway.

I didn't want to get that close, I hoped to drive to a deserted area east of the border town. But instead we got lost and found ourselves headed to the port of entry. We were in America, but it felt as if we were already in Mexico, as people sat aimlessly around town as if they were waiting for rides. I told Rita to take a left turn and we entered a residential district that seemed fairly non descript. A few streets down I saw the elevation gain a little, and I told her to turn right...we went down the road until the pavement stopped past a new subdivision. I told her we HAD to take a picture of this $8 billion boondoggle. As we were deciding a Border Patrol agent drove over the sand and toward us.

He stopped long enough to roll down his window. But he didn't harass us at all. Instead, we told him we wanted to know if it was okay to take a photo and he said it was. I said that I had heard people claim the wall was really effective in indicting people. Rita seemed to think the new wall wasn't that much higher. The agent told us in fact it was more effective. He then smiled and said it was time for him to go home. We trotted out and took photos and then headed back to the motel.

Walking out of the car and seeing a thin ribbon of desert before the wall seduced me, as if I had reached the ends of the earth...as if I had stumbled onto some far more exotic than I could have ever imagined. Rita was hardly as impressed and was pretty tuckered out upon getting back, taking a nap before dinner.

All in all it was nice to get away from the maelstrom of budget deficits and electoral politics. It was good to step back and think about things for a little bit, and to escape the concrete jungle in exchange for the expanse of the desert. But like any vacation, it was over too soon, and forcing me to dream about adventures for another day.

Saturday was the start of hunting season. Not that I knew this at the time of course...I only thought about it after getting a chance to visit Alta Sonora's very own Bass Pro Shops Outdoor World. The reason was a pretty mundane one...the local Walmart had run out of ground tarps and tent pegs. Still, for a guy who has spent a lot of hours at Sport Chalet....the Outdoor World was a fun diversion. It's one thing to have stuffed animal heads on the wall...it's another thing entirely to feel as if you have stepped into a natural history museum.

I'll have to find an excuse to go back there...even though I'm not sure I can justify buying a $500 bow and arrow anytime soon.

But that's okay, I suppose, given that others seem to have bigger targets on their backs than our local deer population at the moment...

My friend Roz was curious about my opinion on the economy. In her words, "what do you think will happen?" And I told her, most of the commentary out there was almost irrelevant. It's a simple as understanding what you have seen. The housing market bust created a deflationary impact on the economy would resist, and try to spur growth at the risk of hyperinflation. Today, we saw national banks around the world take the middle step, cutting interest rates in the middle of the correction in the hope of spurring more credit. But the truth is...it's probably just going to make the problem worse at the end.

People continue to throw around terms like "depression" and "recession" like "electability". It turns those words into shibboleths, that become divorced from the type of objectivity that should accompany them. Instead, try adding "correction" to your vocabulary. This is a correction, first and foremost.

I would also add that if anything, I think "Reaganomics" is dead. In the words of British conservative Simon Heffer: "We are all socialists now." So much for welfare being only for poor people....

Of course in light of this financial pandemonium, maybe honing my hunting and fishing skills would be a good idea after all...too bad the tastiest thing you can catch around is here is Apache Trout....

It's that time of year again.

Concern about the deficit in the current-year budget took center stage at the state Capitol on Wednesday.

While the Democratic governor cautioned that it's still early in the budget cycle to make draconian budget moves, House Speaker Jim Weiers, a Republican, said that he foresees a shortfall of $1.3 billion and the need for "some very hard decisions."

Weiers convened an unusual meeting of state lawmakers and legislative candidates to hear a presentation about the state's fiscal situation.

Legislative budget officials said the current year's budget, which began July 1, faces a likely $300 million shortfall to date, based on preliminary reports of September tax collections. By the time the fiscal year ends June 30, the deficit could range from $550 million to $1 billion. [link]

It's been an exciting week at work, to say the least. Two new people started on Monday, including someone on my team. I've been helping her out here and there...trying to acclimate her to the job....if that's possible. But in any case, that's not the only subplot this week.

First, after moving offices, my phone number had to be "sent over". While that apparently has happened for over a week our telecommunications support office seemed unable to make the change. It wasn't a big deal when my office was vacant....but now my old home has a new denizen...who's not exactly keen on getting phone calls for me.

It also means that my assignments changed a little....but not much: [link].