If you read my blog often, you just knew this day would come. Duane and Rita invited me to separate events this weekend...and I had to choose. Both were very special events...Rita was hosting a birthday party and dinner for herself and Duane was taking his family to watch the "Holy War" between Utah and BYU with members of his local ward. There were compelling reasons to attend both: Rita obviously needs her friends right now to be by her side...but so does Duane, with the spectre of job insecurity rearing its head.

So how did I ever choose you ask? What sort of incredible modeling and methodology was involved in this decision? Why...uh,  none.

Rita's party was going to last way into the night and Duane's wasn't. I, sensing an absolute bloodbath over the next few weeks at work wanted none of the late night thing. It is also true that if Duane was let go for some reason, he easily could move away and I wanted to spend some time with him (and his family) before he left.

The flip side to all this is that USC and UCLA both had a bye week, thus ensuring I would have no overriding allegiances. And UCLA and USC would be both helped by a BYU win over Utah. Moreover, the game (which is usually big only in you guessed it...the LDS belt) had national implications as Utah threatened for a BCS berth at #7 and BYU hanging on at #14. Plus to add to the drama, BYU had continued to beat Utah with miracle performance proving that Jesus really does save.

Of the course the reason you heard nothing about this game is that Utah prevailed, slowly but surely pounding the Cougars into submission. If you ever needed proof that Mormons can get angry, this thing was proof.

But in all seriousness, Duane's ward is made up of many young professionals and it was interesting to get feedback from them about things. One works for the county, another for an uber-consulting firm, and so on. It was another indication that my biggest problem isn't meeting people, it's finding time for them.

In one of the strangest developments since moving to Alta Sonora, I came home on Monday to find a note on my door that contractors would need access to my unit over the next 72 hours to replace...sprinkler heads. Yes I know what you are thinking...you have to replace those things? And more importantly, your apartment has a sprinkler system? Apparently it's yes on both counts but that's not the reason I got irritated with the letter.

You see, the notice also informed tenants they would have to clear areas of valuables so that workers could use a ladder or other tools to do their work. Now, I don't have much furniture so as it turns out the biggest inconvenience was moving my TV over five feet to give them better access to a head in the living room. But a close second was the closet, which had it's duct almost all the way in the back. I worried it wouldn't be sufficient given the very aggressive (in legal-ese) language in the notice. But I came home today and found the repairs seemingly done....

Meanwhile in California it appears that a famous figure has finally come out of the figurative closet as well. No, not that closet. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has finally admitted that the state has a structural deficit based on not just runaway spending but insufficient revenue as well. His solution? Boost sales tax receipts by increasing the rate and levying it on specific services like greens fees and tickets to amusement parks and events. Of course, this probably won't close the gap so there will be some service cuts as well.

I can't say I'm a fan of this idea...and it's not just because of the usual arguments against higher sales taxes. (It's regressive, it's volatile as people have learned because it's tied to consumption.) The reason is that services are not subject to the Sherman Antitrust Act. Nor are they covered under products liability law. On purely policy grounds, consumers should not be forced to pay a transaction tax without additional protections. Now this sounds very academic, but realize that bundling of services such as DSL and telephone is on the increase and would create artificially higher tax thresholds under this plan. Once people figure this out, look out below.

In the meantime though I guess I can scratch California off my list for vacation ideas. No sense in chipping in to help them fix their budget deficits when they are plenty of other places that are trying to manage it without targeting tourists.

Back in 2000-01, one of my favorite programs was none other than "Adventure Bound" on the Travel Channel with Alby Mangels. It was a travelogue based on the exploits of Mangels throughout the wilder corners of the world. Of course, "Adventure Bound" was a dramatic recreation...but still those were the days before reality TV's assault on America.

This last weekend left me more eager than I have been for a while. It's finally cool enough around these parts to step outside and enjoy the area. However, it was a difficult to decide on an encore for my hike on Tuesday. There were plenty of options, but nothing began to stand out. And then it occurred to me I had forgotten about Adam.

Yes, I had to totally realign my weekend on account of a freshman year college roommate. Now I know, many of you don't talk to your old roommies much. But after a early falling out, Adam and I have kept in touch over the years not only with each other but mutual friends as well. So what brought Adam to Alta Sonora? The answer is ...his future. He happened to have some interviews in the area and wondered if I could put him up. That was easy enough, but being a good host proved difficult, as he didn't have much free time in his schedule.

But don't get the wrong idea: Adam didn't cause me actually to scuttle my plans. His arrival just required me to be home on Sunday afternoon to let him in...and that meant if I was going to do something ambitious it would have to be on Saturday. As luck would have it though....that proved a tall order.

I hadn't been sleeping well last week and I was pretty tired by the time Friday rolled around. I had been invited though to a birthday party for a mutual acquaintance of Ed-now-formerly-from-Ag and mine. After running for local office and losing, I hadn't seen the guy in a while. Not only did he show, but I managed to meet a few new interesting people.

There was plenty of time to recuperate on Saturday but I also realized I needed to go to the USC Alumni Club watching party. This is because I will be out of town over Thanksgiving and Chey and Rita certainly want to watch the UCLA game somewhere else. I had the chance to catch up with some acquaintances there too, which was nice.

Still, it looks like there will be the opportunity for even more adventure than I anticipated in the near future. One analyst has gone so far as to predict that the British pound may depreciate to $1.28, the lowest it's been since 1985. [link] While the same forecast would only have the euro getting ten cents cheaper though, it does make one wonder just what exciting travel bargains might be had in 2009. Iceland, here I come.

The weather has turned lovely around these parts, and I decided to take advantage of it on Tuesday, hiking through one of Cougar Country's finest parks. But the other thing about having a holiday in the middle of the week is the havoc it plays with the news cycle. For example, your local newspaper probably ran a story like this today:

The government has abandoned the original centerpiece of its $700 billion rescue effort for the financial system and will not use the money to purchase troubled bank assets. [link]

I would have figured to find this in say....Monday or Tuesday's paper. But with the holiday intervening, I suppose the only alternative was to let the news break now, you know, after the election.

The decision by Paulson to forget buying mortgage backed securities with the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) is hardly a surprise. This is because the British Government already had nationalized a bank long before the "crisis" began this September. The institution's name was Northern Rock and it was nationalized after takeover bids from other banks failed. And this happened in February.

The annoying thing is that instead of focusing on new strategies to help consumers by letting lenders discharge debt (either mortgage or say unsecured loans) the Secretary appears preoccupied with stimulating new borrowing to jumpstart the economy.

But hey, I'd like to point out that this approach ignores the fact that most people are not in a position to take on more debt. Why is that you say? It's because there's a cross-generational issue here. Baby Boomers for the most part were the big beneficiaries from the housing boom because it created a wealth effect for home owners....especially longtime homeowners. Young people on the other hand "benefited" from cheap student loans and potentially cheap auto financing. But for those of them who waded into the real estate market did so at the peak of the bubble....

So my question is....just who exactly is looking for more debt these days? Sure there are those individuals who sat out the housing bubble and mysteriously have little else on their balance sheet. But those people, be them young and old are in the minority. And that's what gets me about the "bailout". You can't solve this mess without in effect, subsidizing the consumer one way or the other. Only helping Wall Street does nothing for the economy. Unless of course, you, uh, do political fundraising.

The first substantive post I did on this blog two years was to celebrate the suddenly decline in gas prices in 2006. Last week, I had the pleasure of paying under $2.50 a gallon in a long while. Yesterday, it was down to $2.39 9/10. Every cloud it seems, has a silver lining.

Already I've received plenty of "feedback" about my supposedly inaccurate prediction about the Presidential Election. I made a similar mistake in 2006...asserting that the race between then Democratic challenger Phil Angelides and Governor Schwarzenegger would be close. Oops.

As far the Electoral College goes, the victory was a decisive one for one Barack Obama. But keep in mind that many of the states in question were close...very close and probably do not greatly shift the "map". The spread on the popular vote was 52% to 46%. Yet, in the College, Obama's margin was 2 to 1. Naturally you might ask if this is common, and it is. College blowouts can occur when the popular vote is still tight. Perhaps the most tangible example of this recently happened in 1984. Reagan's mandate occurred despite Mondale garnering 42% of the popular vote.

Indeed, the bigger problem is that the Democrats have so much territory now to defend. Not only did Obama make inroads in the South, but he also consolidated his reach over the Rust Belt while colonizing the "Inter-Mountain" West. It will be interesting to see how he prioritizing politically over the next four years, given that Bush was happy to pit the "heartland" against the urban, coastal states.

My friend and former freshman roommate Adam rolled into town on Wednesday for a medical conference. It kept him busy enough that we didn't do a whole lot...we went out on Friday night to Cougar Canyon and watched "The Mummy Returns" on cable. But for the most part I was preoccupied with fixing my car. You see, there's been a mechanical problem with my brakes and I've been only vaguely aware until I took in the old auto for it's regular service. The good news is that it wasn't something hard to fix, but it did leave me just a tad poorer.

Still there is some good news: tomorrow is a holiday.

If you ask someone what the 2000 presidential election was about one word comes to mind: Florida. But the agonizing recount and ensuing litigation masked the bigger story....that Republicans had established themselves in the rapidly growing West and South, and leaving the Democrats an ever-shrinking electoral base on the Pacific Coast, Rust Belt, and Northeast. For example, George W. Bush received 271 electors that year. If John McCain were to win the same group in 2008, he would get 278. Barack Obama's only option this time was to win a state that either Al Gore or John Kerry did not.

Once upon a time, I thought this to be near impossible. Be it in soccer or politics it's much easier to play to a draw than it is to a win. And as late as early September, McCain led the national polls and might have won it. But then, as you might have heard, the economic crisis changed all that, and sent McCain's popularity plummeting. Obama however, failed to deliver a knockout blow. \

This means the election is going to be close. Not like in 2000, when only a handful of states really mattered, but REALLY close.

As in a DRAW, 269-269. On paper, this sounds like a win for the Democrats, because an electoral college tie is settled by a vote in the House of Representatives. But, that vote is done by the incoming Congress not the current one. And while Democrats are likely to still rule the roost, the vote is done by delegation, allowing a split of 25-25. Again because of the Democrat's dominance 27 delegations are currently majority Democrat. But what if one of these delegations fears the consequence of picking Obama if their state did not? I'd argue it's very possible that we could see a split ticket, which most likely would lead to an Obama-Palin shotgun marriage. (The Senate picks the VP if there's an electoral tie, but it could be done as a compromise to break gridlock in the House.)

Still you ask, how is this possible? What sort of ridiculous imagination does one need to make Obama-Palin a reality? Not much.

If we look back at 2000, there was an incredibly close state and a villain, its secretary of state. This time around, there is likely to be a a nefarious Secretary of State and a razor-thin count. It just may not occur in the same place. Mike Coffman has been dubbed "Colorado's Katherine Harris" for his aggressive purging of voter rolls. Coffman is a Republican, and has been criticized by a federal judge for this practice. But Colorado has been steadily in Obama's column for months and a GOP victory there would immediately raise eyebrows.

Obama though doesn't need Colorado if states like Virginia, Ohio, or Florida go his way. But if they don't he likely needs the rest of the Southwest, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona to reach 270. (This assumes Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District doesn't break from the rest of the state and select Obama.) Nevada and New Mexico have a rather large base of Hispanics who appear motivated and ready to show up and vote Democrat. Arizona on the other hand, wasn't being considered a toss-up state until a week ago, long after Obama had already picked the final rally for his campaign in Manassas, Virginia.

I mentioned to a coworker who is quite conservative that I expected Arizona this year to be far more competitive than Florida...for the sole reason that the state has experienced massive demographic changes since 2004 and that political strategists are often playing catch-up. But without that final push, it's likely that McCain takes his home state even by less than a hundred votes. Adding to the problem is that heavily Democratic Pima County has refused to submit its ballots online, preferring instead to send them by van to Phoenix. That could leave the final tally in doubt for a day or so. In addition, some 200,000 early votes may not be counted until after November 5th. That's a huge number in a place with only 6 million residents.

Now you might ask why I have this belief that tomorrow may create more questions than it answers. And the reason is this. Politicians like things unsettled. Clarity reduces the leverage politicians have. So naturally, just when a politician might find some comfort in certainty, the situation probably won't cooperate.