The last couple of days have seen lots of interesting developments around here, from a spate of warm weather to the news that Andrew will be coming out here to visit for a week in March, to all the new photos I uploaded. But this post won't be about any of that.

And you thought it was a just a movie. But this article confirms that Alta Sonora is going where no one has gone before. [link]

Prosecutors are free to file complaints for violations of the state's employer-sanctions law, as the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday denied requests for emergency injunctions to block the law.

Don't be fooled, the appeals process isn't over. But the day has finally come where state law enforcement finally can call Washington's bluff on immigration. And so while the budget crisis labors on, and while other passions inflame Cougar Country, these are heady times for the budding policy wonk. After all, Justice Brandeis once remarked in a dissenting opinion that "[i]t is one of the happy incidents of the federal system that a single courageous State may, if its citizens choose, serve as a laboratory; and try novel social and economic experiments without risk to the rest of the country." Yet most of these "experiments" are either not recognized as being as revolutionary as they are, or the product of a risk averse political system.

Employer sanctions is neither. It has transformed the state into the front lines not just for immigration policy, but also the growing rift between state and federal relations. It might seem perverse to say I enjoy being in such a place. But it's true. For we always associate the front lines of battle as a place where one doesn't last long...with the slaughter of the trenches in World War I to the Nestorian order. But that's only partially true in government. While ideas and people come and go, opportunity always knocks.

And if you think about it, isn't that the whole reason we have an immigration problem to begin with?

After how quickly President's Day weekend descended into chaos, I didn't have high hopes for this one. But as luck would have it, just when I wasn't expecting it, I got good news.

First, I didn't have to pay for delivery of my new sleeper sofa. Instead Duane and Marcel volunteered to help on Friday. However, the weather appeared to threaten. At one point, Marcel pulled his truck over to try and cover it somehow from drizzle. But as luck would have it, she was barely damp before bringing her home. And with that, it's time for me to photograph my place with some actual furniture. But that didn't happen because of...well you'll see.

One thing I hadn't mentioned yet was the news that Chey (Rita's husband) accepted a job offer out here. They will be moving to Cougar Country in March, but had to come for a visit this past weekend to do some paperwork. Originally I thought I would be preoccupied with getting the sofa. But with that behind me, I spent Friday night falling asleep in front of the TV, something I hadn't done in a long while.

Meanwhile Alta Sonora's newest residents only left their home of San Diego on Saturday morning, ensuring it would be a while before I could meet up with them. So I decided to see if I could visit this plate lunch place in Pointy Rock. I've heard good things about it, but moreover, it's only open during the week and for lunch on Saturday. So I go down, park at the meter, and walk in only to find out it was cash only. Unlike most places, it didn't occur to me where a local credit union branch was. (In retrospect it was really easy, but I didn't think of it in time.)

So I conceded defeat and ate at Fatburger, with half a mind to go to Town Lake and rent a kayak. I had heard that the kayaks were only available during winter and fall. So I asked the concessionaire what would be the last day to come down and do it. The manager was consulted and upon retrospect, he said that the website was wrong and that kayak rentals would be available all year. Now, I'm not sure I want to do this when it actually gets hot anyway, but it's good to know I can burnish my searing interest in paddling should unseasonably cool weather materialize. However, I also noticed the other boats were available for rental until almost sunset. So when Rita called I suggest maybe the family meet me down there and rent foot-powered pedal boats.

But that meant waiting all day...long enough for me to get attack by a bee...do some plane spotting...and watch the world go by. But finally, when the Tors arrived the consensus was to rent an electric cruiser instead. So for the next hour we drove around the artificial creation that is Town Lake. But the timing couldn't be better, for as it turned out to be the last hour of sunlight we were treated to a spectacular sunset and other beautiful sights. The only downside was that we left the park so late that nearly every restaurant had a long wait for dinner and we had to settle for the Outback Steakhouse.

The next day was far more boring but more helpful. I went to H and R Block to figure out my taxes. It cost a pretty penny to do this, but I was able to close the books on what to do in terms of adjusting my tax forms at work and paying what I owe for my role as a tutor last year. I did worry for a while that my loans with Sallie Mae had entered default...but I called them today and straightened that out. At night, I met Chey and Rita at Chuck E. Cheese while their kids romped around with a hoard of tokens they had from previous visits. It was nearly empty, so naturally the children enjoyed themselves. I didn't partake in any food...instead opting for a late dinner at Del Taco. I bid them safe passage home only to learn that more visitors might be on the way.

Tree Fiddy Bot

February 20 2:20 PM

What's this I hear about "staglation" and core inflation rising 2.5%? Can you please enlighten those of us not holding an advanced understanding of economics what this portends to the country's economic activity? And what was/is the Federal Reserve's role in all of this?
I mean, I just want to know...will I still be worth tree fiddy? Or will I dissolve into an adominable two fiddy bot?

Originally I thought perhaps I would have to spend Saturday arranging for my sofa to be delivered. Now it appears I should go to the Goodwill...looking for go-go boots, hot pants, and open neck shirts. Stagflation has become such a hot topic you'd think we were back in the 1970s. I have actually argued for a long time that there are parallels between then and now, but suddenly, conventional wisdom agrees.

Still, stagflation was the product of some unique circumstances. Essentially, Nixon told the nation off the gold standard in 1973. This was in response to the French government's decision to exchange dollars it had acquired through trade with the US for gold held by the US. The motivation behind the French decision was that the US had effectively printed money to fund the war in Vietnam in violation of the gold standard. (Nevermind the fact that the US had entered Vietnam to come to the aid of the French.) As a result, Nixon determined the gold standard was not possible and instead struck a deal with the Saudis...insisting they accept only dollars for oil transactions. As a result of conflict in the Middle East and the Arab Oil Embargo however, this enhanced the amount of inflation that already was occuring in domestic markets. In the end, stagflation was beaten by the Fed keeping interest rates high for a long period of time at the end of the 1970s and early 1980s. Since then, interest rates have fallen back to earth.

But the fact is, inflation is a misunderstood concept. It only means the supply of money gets bigger. However since that's a little too difficult to measure, economists for years have instead sampled prices to analyze inflation. And this never works perfectly because every method has drawbacks. Most recently, the Fed decided to abandon the CPI for the PCE. The CPI includes food and utility prices which are more volatile than say, durable goods. But if those are taken out, the remaining index is referred to as the "core CPI". The PCE is calculated differently, but it's not worth going into here. In fact, if you really want a shock all you need to know is that the CPI is calculated by the Department of Labor and the PCE is done by Commerce.

So if the "core CPI" is 2.5% is that bad? Well...year over year no. But over the course of a month, yes. Prices for different products tend to rise and fall for different reasons...be it the changing of the seasons or something totally external. But one thing to understand that if inflation stays low and prices are rising somewhere, it means to at least some extent prices are falling elsewhere. This gets to the point about China. For years, cheap goods from China have entered the US at very competitive prices. But due to a confluence of factors, Chinese imports are predicted to rise this year. That's bad because energy and food are also likely to go up, medical costs will go up, and no industry is likely to see prices fall.

But wait, you say, what about these falling home prices? Aren't those factored in? Believe or not, no...in one of the greater surprises of American economics, rents are part of the CPI...but home prices aren't. So while rents may collapse with home prices, it is unlikley to be to the same degree and therefore not offset a period of high inflation.

Normally, the Fed solves inflation by raising interest rates. This allows companies to slow expansion and growth demands by taking away access to credit. In other words, it allows a company to stop worrying about needing to open new stores by making it impossible to get a loan to open another location. While this appears to be a bad thing, it's really the equivalent of negative feedback loops... sort of like your body feeling tired after exercise.

Meanwhile as you may have noticed, the Fed just cut interest rates, which seems like the wrong strategy altogether. But that's precisely because the Fed feels that cheap credit (i.e. growth) is necessary to keep the economy going even if inflation is a serious risk. To which the Germans and Chinese say....HUNH? Don't we Americans remember those wheelbarrows full of cash in the 1930s coming from the devaluation of the Weimar and Chinese Republics? Didn't we know that the United States had the same problem in 1873 only to have President Ulysseus Grant use the same strategy Fed Chairman Paul Volcker did a century later?

Now one can speculate why seven years ago the Fed under Alan Greenpsan wanted to cut interest rates so low. But effectively this why the Fed appears so powerless now. That decision effectively has the same impact of Nixon abandoning the gold standard. If we allow the money supply (even as credit) to expand too big and too fast it not only creates inflation but sucks out enough oxygen from the economy to suffocate what's left.

But wait there's more. Don't forget that prices are also going to rise for a completely different reason. As the skilled labor pool contracts and the Baby Boomers retire, wages will also rise and thus prices. And as more Boomer qualify for Medicare and Medicaid, the US will likely have to print more money to cover these costs too.

Which bring us back to the 1970s. You see, inflation actually rose and then fell during the decade before reaching 13% in the year of my birth...1980. But high unemployment didn't peak until Christmas of 1982 at a whopping 10.8%. While inflation fell quickly in 1983...employment didn't...gradually edging downward for the next six years.

This time around we know that unemployment won't be able to eat inflation as the labor force is contracting too fast. So that means the real fallout from this "crisis" is either a massive plan of immigration (sounds familiar) for educated workers (nevermind) all while eliminating the overhead cost of all those geriatric Americans (er....) OR a pernicious collpase the dollar which will lead to wars, shadow economies, Blade Runner, and more wars. But I'm getting ahead of myself...John McCain isn't even President yet.

Originally, the weekend was supposed to be about going out to Dons-R-Us. But as luck would have it, instead I got a little sidetracked. First I ended up finally buying a sleeper sofa for my place. And then I went back to the shopping center to get some new dress shoes that I needed ever so badly. I also had dreams about going to the Renaissance Faire out here. But it rained on Friday so I figured the former would be muddy and nasty.

So on Sunday I awaited to hear from my friend. (In a latter post I will tell you what happened.) But as a result, I ended up taking a hike towards Papago and getting even more pictures for you to savor. (However I think I need to load software on my computer to have it be accessed directly.) After the trip to Dons-R-Us fell through I elected to go to the Renaissance Faire on Monday. The last time I had gone to one my mother was still alive and we drove out with both my mom and dad to Glen Helen Regional Park. It was probably 1991. I was always imbued with memories of the low-cut period dress people seemed to favor. Out here though, it was decidedly less risque.

I just ate a fried turkey leg, watched a falconry show, played around with crossbows and longbows, finishing it off with a staged joust. It didn't cost an arm and a leg either. I actually enjoyed the archery enough to think that might be another hobby I need to take up again (along with kayaking). (This wasn't the first time for me, though.)

Naturally when the work week started a surprise was waiting for me. But that's all I can say for now. Watch for the pictures.

It wasn't long before almost everyone in the office was sick. So even though I've been coughing up more phelgm this week than in recent memory...I'm still doing much better. The economy, on the other hand...

February 14th is Valentine's Day in the rest of the US, but here in Alta Sonora it's Statehood Day, commemorating not just our entrance into the Union but the ultimate realization of America's Manifest Destiny. Unlike Hawai'i however it's not a state holiday that everyone gets off. And unlike Nevada, it's not a cause for big social events. But the irony was all too fitting. For on this February 14th, a day reserved for lovers and patriots here....

State's Budget Deficit Getting Worse

For the less-than motivated here's are the highlights:

• The 2008 budget deficit, which legislators have fewer than five months to close, now stands at $1.15 billion. For 2009, it's $1.73 billion.
• The revised figures are especially stark considering it was just September that Napolitano, a Democrat, pegged this year's shortfall at $600 million, a little more than half of the current estimate.
• Structurally, Napolitano's plan to close the budget shortfalls for 2008 and 2009 remains essentially the same as before, relying on bonding for K-12 school construction, drawing down the state rainy-day reserve and some agency spending cuts.
  New to the plan released Thursday is her call to double planned budget cuts for state agencies in 2008 ($151 million rather than half that amount) and pull significantly more from the balances of special-purpose state funds ($298 million).
• For fiscal 2009, Napolitano would make up the growing shortfall with $125 million in agency cuts, rather than $25 million, another $100 million from state-fund balances and a four-week delay in the state's payments to K-12 schools. Known as a K-12 rollover, the tactic would push the payments into the next fiscal year, clearing nearly $600 million off the state's 2009 books without affecting school operations.

So now at least, you know what I have been up to. And you also know that the "recession" has arrived. The reason for this is based on the state's tax system. Around 50% of all revenue comes from our equivalent to the sales tax. The current deficit is a product almost assuredly of fewer people spending money at the cash register and presaging that consumer spending's clip can no longer prevent other forces in the economy from taking over and sending us downward.

The long weekend will be a nice break as my workload inevitably begins to slow down. It's the last one until Memorial Day though, so I have to make it count.

As you can imagine, showing people my grades was not a particularly stressful experience as a kid But with my education over, (I think), the type of report cards I get now are a bit different. And while it's true I'm home sick today, it looks nothing like what sidelined me for almost a week last month. In the interim, I ended up going to my primary care physician for the first time and he did some diagnostic tests. The biggest shock was my cholesterol screening as you'll see. I was told before I had a good score...but wait until you see the number.

As for my vitals:

Height: 5' 7 3/4"

Weight: 154lbs

Blood pressure: 110/75 (even I didn't believe this, but it's true.)

And for the good stuff:

Total Cholesterol: 167 (Target is less than 200.)

LDL: 88 (Target is either 100 or 130 depending on family history)

HDL: 60 (Target is over 40.)

Triglycerides: 114 (Target is under 200).

What surprised me is that one of my friends in medical school immediately was drawn to the HDL score, uttering: "How did you get that so high...do you eat like a lot of Omega 3's or something?" And the answer is, while I do like to eat fish and seafood...it's apparently also the product of something else. I'm a slow eater. If you've met me in person...you know this...in fact you think twice about sharing a meal with me because you have been stuck looking at your watch to avoiding watching me eat after you already finished. But as my friend confirmed, it's possible that this very gradual eating pattern allows for better absorption and hence the "excellent result" confirmed by my doctor.

What's funny is that people think I eat slow because I talk a lot. Well, actually no...believe it or not I eat even slower when not doing another activity because I focus on eating.

Meanwhile, my illness as you might deduce arose no sooner than work became pretty intense again. Although I'm never at liberty to disclose too much, let me say that this recent spate of tough sledding is not a function of the normal budget cycle. That's actually been fairly quiet so far, but will ramp up as the session thunders to a close.

Instead, I went this weekend to Opening Night at the Scottsdale Museum of Contemporary Art. (It's a free event and the artists come to talk about their work...really interesting stuff...but not for everyone I can imagine.) Saturday I went to look at the place Marcel had been trying to show me for a month or so...it's a liquidator of hotel furniture...which is either a steal or...something you couldn't give away. Ironically they have lots of surplus TVs for sale too. Most 27 inchers go for $129, if you can believe it. I didn't buy anything though...just went to clarify what the rules about delivery were. It will cost me $100...which made me think twice about going to IKEA instead.

I've had my eye on this for a couple months now.

Now...a little disclaimer here. I often get angry at the reliance of our nation on cheap imports from the People's Republic of China. I have nothing against the Chinese...it's just that I know how the deals are cut there and how safety and quality are exactly the opposite of everyone's intention. (Namely the American firms, their Chinese subsidiaries, and Uncle Sam.) The goal is to send as much as possible, using worker exploitation if need be, to make sure that we buy lots of things from there. Meanwhile, the Chinese then have to buy lots of US securities to balance the trade deficit which is convenient because they need those Treasuries to get oil on the world market. (At least until countries, *cough* Iraq, stop accepting the US Dollar.)

But I know I can't compete with this when it comes to mass-market goods. So generally I reward stores like Costco that treat its US workforce better, because I know I can't change what goes on overseas that much. The liquidator ironically often has built the furniture for the hotel itself and is merely just buying it back after a planned refurbishment. But what was available there for $399, (including the delivery cost) was not comparable.

The decision to hold off on getting cable now looks like a giant gaffe. The most insane college football season ever is followed up by the most exciting presidential campaign I can remember. It's just too bad I'm not still 20 and living in the dorms for this, so I can suck up my every waking moment.... Well actually, 2000 was pretty eventful too now I think about it...that whole "recount" thing. And being engrossed in that whole circus probably cost me precious time to put myself out there with the ladies....

Still, C-SPAN or not, this is turning into one hell of a ride. After counting the delegates and such, I still think we are headed to a Clinton-McCain general election, and I think McCain likely is our next president and I have a bunch of ideas as to what awaits us. (Think Rambo.) But for now, I'll hold off on extrapolating such things because those are the type of essays for when the the nomination is resolved and the party convention is months away still....

Er, perhaps for when the primaries are over and the convention is months away...as both parties could still see a "brokered convention". Everyone denies and hate acknowledging it in the established political circles for good reason...but still...this leads me to my general observation about "Super Duper Tuesday".

First, how dumb does a state like Florida feel like? They could have scheduled their primary for February 26th and played kingmaker for the entire race. Meanwhile now Texas gets that honor (many assume) and the Sunshine State gets no say. How dumb does New Hampshire and Iowa, and all the other states so eager to buy into the foolish frontloading only to realize this year some other state is going to play kingmaker. Here's why:

Obama had a "problem" in that he was doing best in states where he rely on retail politics (except New Hampshire). So the gamut of states on Super Tuesday posed this problem, and has left him behind in the delegate count. However, from here on out, at most four states will vote on the same day. That allows the Obama campaign to trot around more leisure. Moreover, this Tuesday features the "Potomac Primary" of Virginia, Maryland, and DC...which also favors him. But Hillary does have the lead in delegates and can bank on recruiting lots of superdelegates because of the circumstances. As a result, all Clinton has to do is stay on the ballot and stay competitive in the last handful of states going to vote.

Oh Puerto Rico, you knew it would end this way, right? Yes, the 51st state is dead last on June 7th. But all the big states are done by March 11th, except for Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The Keystone State begins a second wave of primaries on April 22, and ending with yes....the home of Jennifer Lopez. So the issue here is can Clinton (or Obama) continue to buy ads and stay afloat before these last big states which could aid a candidate in staving off relying on the superdelegates to put them over the top? Last night I thought so...but today there was this story about Clinton:

Clinton Loaned Her Campaign $5 Million Last Month

Other reports say many in her campaign are working without pay, which is precisely what was going on in Giuliani-land last month. [Gulp]. So there's only two real potential paths here...either the candidates duel until the Convention or one fades away only to try and overturn the results at the Convention. Please start booking your arrangements to Denver now...

Now the GOP figured they would solve this problem by having many contests be "winner-take-all". But as dominant as McCain's lead is, he too could face a struggle at the other Convention. The reason is that Huckabee has been very successful in the South. Should he continue to win primaries there it will take McCain much longer to reach the 1,191 mark. And given that the other guy in the race is a multi-millionaire...McCain is essentially fighting a two-front war. And the issue isn't that the remaining primaries are on dangerous ground, it's that McCain is not raising money on par with what Romney can spend (or Obama for that matter.)

2000 seems so quaint now, doesn't it?

Well we finally have Cougar Country to ourselves again. In case you didn't know, this weekend Alta Sonora played host to this thing called the "Super Bowl". And of course, because one of the teams playing was from New York...even the Ed Hardy Army ran for it's life this weekend. I almost locked myself inside the whole time, but I couldn't bring myself to. First, I wanted to check out the FBR Open and second, my local dive bar has a huge TV set up.

The FBR, for those that don't know is a PGA golf event. But for some odd reason, it's a huge single scene on Friday and Saturday. I mean, it's unspeakably great for meeting girls...or guys for that matter. Apparently however, word of this also spread to Long Island and Bergen County. The shuttle alone from the parking lot took nearly an hour. The ticket window took another twenty minutes. Concession lines took more time, and before I knew it, I was watching the 16 hole from the grandstands at 4pm with the place half empty. The Bird's Nest also suffered from less balanced demographics. Every girl I wanted to talk to didn't last five minutes before be deluged by cheesy and Back East pick up lines. So I drove home, getting some In-N-Out on the way. While I could view the day as a total waste, instead I was glad to cut my teeth this time around when my chances were pretty slim. Next time, the Big Game is going to be in Tampa and light years away from here, and the FBR.

Despite all this, I still decided to watch the game at my local dive bar. Even though the skies drizzled a bit, I had no choice but sit outside because of how busy they were. And yes, there were people from out of state here...which was even more impressive. Yet I was treated well because I know many of wait staff by name. There were plenty of girls here too, but I really had no chance. First, the game was actually intense enough that everyone was paying at least some attention to the game. But secondly, the audio setup meant I was sitting near a huge woofer. No one could sit at the rest of the table without being unable to think. So for that reason I said hello to Jackey and Holly and went home. But even though I'm no Giants fan I'm supremely happy my prediction was right. The Patriots should have lost to the Ravens in Week 13, but a pass interference call at the end of the game kept a drive alive and let them score. The Ravens defense played some of the best football I've ever seen, in large part because it was the week after Sean Taylor had died and many of his teammates from Miami are on the Ravens, like Willis McGahee and Ed Reed. Oh yeah, they also have this U alum called Ray Lewis. But nevertheless, the offense couldn't put the game away for them and ultimately the officiating crew gave the Pats one last chance to stay perfect. This time however, the Giants excellent defense didn't have to win it for them and New England's streak finally came to an end.

The Race for the White House is taking over my life, literally. It's not because I follow politics closely, (I do). And it's not because I lack other things going on that are making life interesting. Rather, enthusiasm about the Obama campaign is growing. And in case you forgot, the Governor endorsed him not that long ago, triggering many other Democrats statewide to affirm their allegience to Senator Clinton. The primary is next Tuesday and there's a real chance that neither Barack nor Hillary will deliver the knockout blow. Democrats might have to wait a tad longer, until even the legislative session is over, to find out who will be their nominee.

Independent of this, my friend Chris in DC showed me the McCain Blogette. It's not a product of the campaign however, but an effort by his 23-year old, blonde daughter to capitalize on her 15 minutes, er, months of fame. And that's what is so compelling. Meghan McCain blogs about her life which just happens to be consumed with a tough time in anyone's life, that year after you finish college. And it just so happens her dad, a famous senator, is running for President. Even if it's a complete put on, and it seems not to be, it's a revealing look at campaigns that you don't see anymore. And it's a far cry from Chelsea Clinton's refusal to talk to the media at all.

Moreover, the appears to be a new TV in the offing, which will allow me to finally call the cable company. (You know, I've sorta gotten used to what Rita called "my CIA apartment". No furniture, allows me to go on the lam quickly, etc.) Apparently it won't be a moment too soon, courtesy of Ann Coulter:

Well if that's not a ringing endorsement for Obama, I don't know what is. Perhaps it's just a clever bit of reverse psychology, but Coulter isn't the only pundit conservative frothing at the mouth over a McCain nomination. Oh no, fellow Floridan Rush Limbaugh is also not too happy.

Still, Ann Coulter praising a Clinton is pretty high on my list for events that precede the Apocalypse. Not even an eye-popping collapse in the US Dollar can match this. Meanwhile this weekend I'm off to the FBR Open, and potentially a local watering hole to watch the Super Bowl. Maybe I can block all this out...or not....